Aduana Stars 2–1 Great Olympics: Result & Stats

Aduana Stars

FT

2 – 1

Great Olympics

1/3/2021

Premier League · Round 7Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Aduana Stars56%

×Draw28%

Great Olympics16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aduana StarsExpected goals in this matchGreat Olympics

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.60

Aduana Stars

1.37

Great Olympics

0.60

Aduana Stars creates 128% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

1.46

creates per match

0.61

0.59

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Aduana Stars

1.46

Great Olympics

0.61

allows per match

Aduana Stars

0.59

Great Olympics

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Great Olympics →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw

84%

Aduana Stars or Great Olympics

72%

Draw or Great Olympics

44%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

28%

Great Olympics wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

75%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

40%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

16%

Great Olympics 1+ goals

45%

Great Olympics 2+ goals

12%

Great Olympics 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

77%

Great Olympics (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.28 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Great Olympics defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aduana Stars scores more

56%

level

28%

Great Olympics scores more

16%

Aduana Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff