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Aduana Stars vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
Unknown 90+5'
B. Adjei 82', 71'
K. Obeng 37'
A. Aziz Issah 52'
12/31/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Aduana Stars52%
×Draw28%
Dreams19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.34
Dreams
0.69

Aduana Stars creates 94% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.42
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.60
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
81%
Aduana Stars or Dreams
72%
Draw or Dreams
48%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
25%
Dreams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
74%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
39%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
15%
Dreams 1+ goals
50%
Dreams 2+ goals
15%
Dreams 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
73%
Dreams (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 109 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.42 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dreams attack 0.77 + Aduana Stars defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
52%
level
28%
Dreams scores more
19%

Aduana Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
11'
37'
K. Obeng
43'
52'
A. Aziz Issah
71'
71'
B. Adjei
82'
B. Adjei
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aduana Stars 4–1 Dreams

Aduana Stars beat Dreams 4-1 in Premier League on December 31, 2023.

Goals: K. Obeng (37'), A. Aziz Issah (52'), B. Adjei (71', 82'), ? (90+5').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.