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Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
12/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Aduana Stars58%
×Draw26%
Berekum Chelsea16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.51
Berekum Chelsea
0.66

Aduana Stars creates 129% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
Berekum Chelsea
0.72

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
Berekum Chelsea
1.56

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
84%
Aduana Stars or Berekum Chelsea
74%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
42%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
30%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
78%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
44%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
19%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
48%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
14%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
78%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
58%
level
26%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
16%

Aduana Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea

Aduana Stars beat Berekum Chelsea 3-2 in Premier League on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.