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Aduana Stars vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
11/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Aduana Stars46%
×Draw31%
Asante Kotoko23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.14
Asante Kotoko
0.71

Aduana Stars creates 61% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.41
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.58
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
77%
Aduana Stars or Asante Kotoko
69%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
54%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
20%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
68%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
32%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
51%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
16%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
67%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.58 · 108 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.41 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Aduana Stars defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
46%
level
31%
Asante Kotoko scores more
23%

Aduana Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat Aduana Stars 2-0 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.