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Aduana Stars vs Asante Kotoko — Cup 2022

Aduana Stars
Aduana Starsadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
2/26/2023CupCup · Round of 16Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aduana Stars33%
×Draw30%
Asante Kotoko37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.01
Asante Kotoko
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.20
Asante Kotoko
1.17

allows per match

Aduana Stars
1.00
Asante Kotoko
0.83

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
63%
Aduana Stars or Asante Kotoko
70%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
67%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
13%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
64%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
27%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
8%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
66%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
29%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
47%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.20 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Asante Kotoko attack 1.17 + Aduana Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
33%
level
30%
Asante Kotoko scores more
37%

Asante Kotoko at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Aduana Stars 1–0 Asante Kotoko

Aduana Stars beat Asante Kotoko 1-0 in Cup on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.