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Aduana Stars vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
11/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Aduana Stars59%
×Draw26%
Accra Lions14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.49
Accra Lions
0.58

Aduana Stars creates 157% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 67 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.41
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.58
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
86%
Aduana Stars or Accra Lions
74%
Draw or Accra Lions
41%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
31%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
77%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
44%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
19%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
44%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
12%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
81%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.58 · 108 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.41 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Aduana Stars defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
59%
level
26%
Accra Lions scores more
14%

Aduana Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aduana Stars 0–1 Accra Lions

Accra Lions beat Aduana Stars 1-0 in Premier League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.