ADT 3–2 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

ADT

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sporting Cristal

10/4/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT38%

×Draw26%

Sporting Cristal36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADTExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.33

ADT

1.36

Sporting Cristal

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 156 away

1.49

creates per match

1.79

0.88

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

ADT

1.49

Sporting Cristal

1.79

allows per match

ADT

0.88

Sporting Cristal

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADT+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ADT or draw

64%

ADT or Sporting Cristal

74%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

62%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+

17%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals

74%

ADT 2+ goals

39%

ADT 3+ goals

16%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

38%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)

51%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ADT scores more

38%

level

26%

Sporting Cristal scores more

36%

ADT at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff