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ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
6/28/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Union Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

ADT46%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Garcilaso27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.40
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.00

ADT creates 40% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 61 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11

allows per match

ADT
0.88
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ADT or draw
73%
ADT or Deportivo Garcilaso
73%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
54%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
75%
ADT 2+ goals
41%
ADT 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ADT scores more
46%
level
27%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
27%

ADT at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: ADT 0–0 Deportivo Garcilaso

ADT and Deportivo Garcilaso drew 0-0 in Primera División on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Union Tarma in Tarma.