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ADT vs Carlos A. Mannucci — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
2/17/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT49%
×Draw26%
Carlos A. Mannucci25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.54
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.02

ADT creates 51% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 95 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.16

allows per match

ADT
0.88
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.59

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ADT or draw
75%
ADT or Carlos A. Mannucci
74%
Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci
51%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
25%
Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
79%
ADT 2+ goals
45%
ADT 3+ goals
20%
Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
64%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
27%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
66%
Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.16 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ADT scores more
49%
level
26%
Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
25%

ADT at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: ADT 4–0 Carlos A. Mannucci

ADT beat Carlos A. Mannucci 4-0 in Primera División on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.