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Adriese vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
12/10/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Adriese49%
×Draw26%
Virtus Bolzano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.50
Virtus Bolzano
0.98

Adriese creates 53% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
75%
Adriese or Virtus Bolzano
74%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
51%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
25%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
78%
Adriese 2+ goals
44%
Adriese 3+ goals
19%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
62%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
26%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
67%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Adriese scores more
49%
level
26%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
25%

Adriese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Adriese 2–0 Virtus Bolzano

Adriese beat Virtus Bolzano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.