Adriese 3–0 Montecchio Maggiore: Result & Stats

Adriese

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montecchio Maggiore

1/5/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adriese45%

×Draw25%

Montecchio Maggiore30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdrieseExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Adriese

1.54

Montecchio Maggiore

1.20

Adriese creates 28% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 53 away

1.64

creates per match

1.32

1.07

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Adriese

1.64

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Adriese

1.07

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Adriese or draw

70%

Adriese or Montecchio Maggiore

75%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

55%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+

23%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals

79%

Adriese 2+ goals

45%

Adriese 3+ goals

20%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

70%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

34%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)

60%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adriese scores more

45%

level

25%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

30%

Adriese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff