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Adriese vs Lavis — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lavis
Lavis
11/10/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Adriese69%
×Draw18%
Lavis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
2.24
Lavis
0.85

Adriese creates 164% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Lavis
0.63

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Lavis
2.84

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Lavis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
87%
Adriese or Lavis
82%
Draw or Lavis
31%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
45%
Lavis wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
89%
Adriese 2+ goals
65%
Adriese 3+ goals
38%
Lavis 1+ goals
57%
Lavis 2+ goals
21%
Lavis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
84%
Lavis (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.24

Lavis attack 0.63 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Adriese scores more
69%
level
18%
Lavis scores more
13%

Adriese at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Adriese 2–0 Lavis

Adriese beat Lavis 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.