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Adriese vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1/15/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Adriese41%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.44
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.27

Adriese creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 70 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
67%
Adriese or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
59%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
20%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
76%
Adriese 2+ goals
42%
Adriese 3+ goals
18%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
72%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
36%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
55%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adriese scores more
41%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
33%

Adriese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Adriese 0–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Adriese and Dolomiti Bellunesi drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.