Adriese 0–2 Bassano Virtus: Result & Stats

Adriese

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bassano Virtus

11/16/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adriese43%

×Draw28%

Bassano Virtus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdrieseExpected goals in this matchBassano Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.00

Adriese

1.28

Bassano Virtus

1.00

Adriese creates 28% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 53 away

1.64

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Adriese

1.64

Bassano Virtus

0.92

allows per match

Adriese

1.07

Bassano Virtus

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Bassano Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Adriese or draw

71%

Adriese or Bassano Virtus

72%

Draw or Bassano Virtus

57%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+

19%

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals

72%

Adriese 2+ goals

37%

Adriese 3+ goals

14%

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

63%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

26%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)

60%

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Adriese scores more

43%

level

28%

Bassano Virtus scores more

29%

Adriese at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff