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Adriese vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
5/5/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adriese52%
×Draw24%
Atletico Castegnato24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.67
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

Adriese creates 58% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
76%
Adriese or Atletico Castegnato
76%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
48%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
81%
Adriese 2+ goals
50%
Adriese 3+ goals
23%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adriese scores more
52%
level
24%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
24%

Adriese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Adriese 5–2 Atletico Castegnato

Adriese beat Atletico Castegnato 5-2 in Serie D - Girone C on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.