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Adria vs Svoboda — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
FT
1 – 0
Svoboda
Svoboda
5/1/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 12Igrišče Pri Štantu Miren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria45%
×Draw23%
Svoboda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
1.81
Svoboda
1.50

Adria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Svoboda
1.30

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Svoboda
2.13

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Svoboda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Svoboda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Adria or draw
68%
Adria or Svoboda
77%
Draw or Svoboda
55%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
24%
Svoboda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
84%
Adria 2+ goals
54%
Adria 3+ goals
27%
Svoboda 1+ goals
78%
Svoboda 2+ goals
44%
Svoboda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
58%
Svoboda (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Svoboda away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Svoboda defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Svoboda attack 1.30 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adria scores more
45%
level
23%
Svoboda scores more
32%

Adria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adria vs Svoboda

Adria beat Svoboda 1-0 in 3. SNL - West on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Igrišče Pri Štantu Miren in Miren.