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Adria vs Šencur — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
FT
0 – 3
Šencur
Šencur
9/12/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 5Igrišče Pri Štantu Miren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria28%
×Draw23%
Šencur49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
1.31
Šencur
1.79

Šencur creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Šencur
1.87

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Šencur
1.13

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Šencur+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Šencur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adria or draw
51%
Adria or Šencur
77%
Draw or Šencur
72%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
12%
Šencur wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
73%
Adria 2+ goals
38%
Adria 3+ goals
14%
Šencur 1+ goals
83%
Šencur 2+ goals
53%
Šencur 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
37%
Šencur (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Šencur away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Šencur defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Šencur attack 1.87 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Adria scores more
28%
level
23%
Šencur scores more
49%

Šencur at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Šencur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adria 0 – 3 Šencur

Šencur beat Adria 3-0 in 3. SNL - West on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Igrišče Pri Štantu Miren in Miren.