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Adria vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
CANC
14:00
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
5/15/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria28%
×Draw21%
Sava Kranj50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
1.50
Sava Kranj
2.05

Sava Kranj creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Adria or draw
50%
Adria or Sava Kranj
79%
Draw or Sava Kranj
72%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
13%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
78%
Adria 2+ goals
44%
Adria 3+ goals
19%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
87%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
61%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
36%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Adria scores more
28%
level
21%
Sava Kranj scores more
50%

Sava Kranj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Adria host Sava Kranj

May 15, 2021: Adria take on Sava Kranj in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.