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Adria vs Postojna — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
CANC
22:00
Postojna
Postojna
5/1/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Adria48%
×Draw24%
Postojna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
1.69
Postojna
1.24

Adria creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Postojna
0.78

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Postojna
1.89

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Postojna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Postojna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Adria or draw
72%
Adria or Postojna
76%
Draw or Postojna
52%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
25%
Postojna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
82%
Adria 2+ goals
50%
Adria 3+ goals
24%
Postojna 1+ goals
71%
Postojna 2+ goals
35%
Postojna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
63%
Postojna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Postojna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Postojna defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Postojna attack 0.78 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adria scores more
48%
level
24%
Postojna scores more
28%

Adria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Adria host Postojna

May 1, 2021: Adria take on Postojna in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.