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ADR Jicaral vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Staradvanced
4/23/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finalsCancha de la Asociación Cívica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADR Jicaral52%
×Draw24%
Limón Black Star24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADR Jicaral
1.73
Limón Black Star
1.10

ADR Jicaral creates 57% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 36 away

creates per match

ADR Jicaral
2.25
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

ADR Jicaral
0.88
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw
76%
ADR Jicaral or Limón Black Star
76%
Draw or Limón Black Star
48%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
28%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
82%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
52%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
25%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
67%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
30%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
68%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more
52%
level
24%
Limón Black Star scores more
24%

ADR Jicaral at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADR Jicaral vs Limón Black Star

Limón Black Star beat ADR Jicaral 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Cancha de la Asociación Cívica in Jicaral.