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ADR Jicaral vs Deportivo Cartagena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
FT
2 – 2
Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
10/10/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Cancha de la Asociación Cívica (Jicaral)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ADR Jicaral57%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Cartagena23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADR Jicaral
2.16
Deportivo Cartagena
1.30

ADR Jicaral creates 66% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 32 away

creates per match

ADR Jicaral
2.25
Deportivo Cartagena
1.72

allows per match

ADR Jicaral
0.89
Deportivo Cartagena
2.06

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par
Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw
77%
ADR Jicaral or Deportivo Cartagena
79%
Draw or Deportivo Cartagena
43%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
88%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
63%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
36%
Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.16

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more
57%
level
21%
Deportivo Cartagena scores more
23%

ADR Jicaral at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: ADR Jicaral 2–2 Deportivo Cartagena

ADR Jicaral and Deportivo Cartagena drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on October 10, 2018.

The match was played at Cancha de la Asociación Cívica (Jicaral).