Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ADR Jicaral vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Antioquia
Antioquia
1/21/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ADR Jicaral62%
×Draw21%
Antioquia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADR Jicaral
2.09
Antioquia
1.02

ADR Jicaral creates 105% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 32 away

creates per match

ADR Jicaral
2.25
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

ADR Jicaral
0.88
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw
82%
ADR Jicaral or Antioquia
79%
Draw or Antioquia
38%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
38%
Antioquia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
88%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
62%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
34%
Antioquia 1+ goals
64%
Antioquia 2+ goals
27%
Antioquia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
78%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Antioquia attack 1.16 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more
62%
level
21%
Antioquia scores more
18%

ADR Jicaral at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: ADR Jicaral 2–0 Antioquia

ADR Jicaral beat Antioquia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.