ADR Jicaral 2–0 AD Carmelita: Result & Stats

ADR Jicaral

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AD Carmelita

2/25/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Cancha de la Asociación Cívica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

ADR Jicaral56%

×Draw22%

AD Carmelita22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADR JicaralExpected goals in this matchAD Carmelita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.09

ADR Jicaral

1.90

AD Carmelita

1.09

ADR Jicaral creates 74% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 104 away

2.25

creates per match

1.31

0.88

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

ADR Jicaral

2.25

AD Carmelita

1.31

allows per match

ADR Jicaral

0.88

AD Carmelita

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

AD Carmelita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw

78%

ADR Jicaral or AD Carmelita

78%

Draw or AD Carmelita

44%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+

33%

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals

85%

ADR Jicaral 2+ goals

56%

ADR Jicaral 3+ goals

29%

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

66%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

30%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)

72%

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.90

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more

56%

level

22%

AD Carmelita scores more

22%

ADR Jicaral at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff