ADO Den Haag W 2–0 Fortuna Sittard W

ADO Den Haag W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Sittard W

5/16/2025

Eredivisie Women · Round 22Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ADO Den Haag W35%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Sittard W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Sittard W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.79

ADO Den Haag W

1.61

Fortuna Sittard W

1.79

Fortuna Sittard W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

1.66

creates per match

2.16

1.41

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

ADO Den Haag W

1.66

Fortuna Sittard W

2.16

allows per match

ADO Den Haag W

1.41

Fortuna Sittard W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag W+0.00on par

Fortuna Sittard W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag W ↓

Fortuna Sittard W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag W or draw

58%

ADO Den Haag W or Fortuna Sittard W

77%

Draw or Fortuna Sittard W

65%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag W wins by 2+

17%

Fortuna Sittard W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag W 1+ goals

80%

ADO Den Haag W 2+ goals

48%

ADO Den Haag W 3+ goals

22%

Fortuna Sittard W 1+ goals

83%

Fortuna Sittard W 2+ goals

53%

Fortuna Sittard W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag W (draw refunded)

45%

Fortuna Sittard W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag W at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Fortuna Sittard W away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag W attack 1.66 + Fortuna Sittard W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fortuna Sittard W attack 2.16 + ADO Den Haag W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ADO Den Haag W scores more

35%

level

23%

Fortuna Sittard W scores more

42%

Fortuna Sittard W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff