ADO Den Haag 1–0 Jong Utrecht: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jong Utrecht

3/17/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 32WerkTalent Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADO Den Haag58%

×Draw21%

Jong Utrecht21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den HaagExpected goals in this matchJong Utrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.18

ADO Den Haag

2.08

Jong Utrecht

1.18

ADO Den Haag creates 76% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 147 away

2.00

creates per match

1.07

1.28

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

ADO Den Haag

2.00

Jong Utrecht

1.07

allows per match

ADO Den Haag

1.28

Jong Utrecht

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Jong Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw

79%

ADO Den Haag or Jong Utrecht

79%

Draw or Jong Utrecht

42%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

35%

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

87%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

61%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

34%

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

69%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

33%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

73%

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more

58%

level

21%

Jong Utrecht scores more

21%

ADO Den Haag at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff