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ADO Den Haag vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
9/30/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADO Den Haag52%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
2.03
Jong PSV U21
1.40

ADO Den Haag creates 45% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 149 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
2.00
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.28
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
74%
ADO Den Haag or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
48%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
30%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
87%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
60%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
33%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
75%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
41%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
66%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
52%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
26%

ADO Den Haag at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: ADO Den Haag 1–3 Jong PSV U21

Jong PSV U21 beat ADO Den Haag 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in 's-gravenhage.