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ADO Den Haag II vs Willem II U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
FT
1 – 2
Willem II U21
Willem II U21
9/17/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 3Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

ADO Den Haag II44%
×Draw22%
Willem II U2134%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
1.94
Willem II U21
1.69

ADO Den Haag II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 24 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
Willem II U21
1.46

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
Willem II U21
2.00

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
Willem II U21+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Willem II U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
66%
ADO Den Haag II or Willem II U21
78%
Draw or Willem II U21
56%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
24%
Willem II U21 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
86%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
58%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
30%
Willem II U21 1+ goals
82%
Willem II U21 2+ goals
50%
Willem II U21 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
56%
Willem II U21 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Willem II U21 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Willem II U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Willem II U21 attack 1.46 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
44%
level
22%
Willem II U21 scores more
34%

ADO Den Haag II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: ADO Den Haag II 1–2 Willem II U21

Willem II U21 beat ADO Den Haag II 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1 in Den Haag.