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ADO Den Haag II vs Twente / Heracles U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
FT
3 – 3
Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
4/12/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 10Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

ADO Den Haag II41%
×Draw21%
Twente / Heracles U2138%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
1.96
Twente / Heracles U21
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
Twente / Heracles U21
1.82

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
Twente / Heracles U21
2.03

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
62%
ADO Den Haag II or Twente / Heracles U21
79%
Draw or Twente / Heracles U21
59%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
22%
Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
86%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
58%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
31%
Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
85%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
56%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
52%
Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.96

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
41%
level
21%
Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
38%

ADO Den Haag II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: ADO Den Haag II 3–3 Twente / Heracles U21

ADO Den Haag II and Twente / Heracles U21 drew 3-3 in U21 Divisie 1 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1 in Den Haag.