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ADO Den Haag II vs Hoogland — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
CANC
00:00
Hoogland
Hoogland
5/3/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 31Cars Jeans Stadion (Den Haag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ADO Den Haag II63%
×Draw18%
Hoogland19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
2.49
Hoogland
1.29

ADO Den Haag II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
2.58
Hoogland
1.26

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.33
Hoogland
2.39

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
Hoogland+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Hoogland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
81%
ADO Den Haag II or Hoogland
82%
Draw or Hoogland
37%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
42%
Hoogland wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
92%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
71%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
45%
Hoogland 1+ goals
72%
Hoogland 2+ goals
37%
Hoogland 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
77%
Hoogland (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Hoogland away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 2.58 + Hoogland defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.49

Hoogland attack 1.26 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
63%
level
18%
Hoogland scores more
19%

ADO Den Haag II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ADO Den Haag II vs Hoogland — Match Preview

ADO Den Haag II face Hoogland on May 3, 2020 in this Derde Divisie - Sunday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

ADO Den Haag II host Hoogland at Cars Jeans Stadion (Den Haag).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.