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ADO Den Haag II vs Cambuur U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 5 – 1
Cambuur U21
Cambuur U21
5/30/2026U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

ADO Den Haag II46%
×Draw21%
Cambuur U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
2.04
Cambuur U21
1.71

ADO Den Haag II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 42 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
Cambuur U21
1.48

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
Cambuur U21
2.19

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
Cambuur U21+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Cambuur U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
67%
ADO Den Haag II or Cambuur U21
79%
Draw or Cambuur U21
54%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
26%
Cambuur U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
87%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
60%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
33%
Cambuur U21 1+ goals
82%
Cambuur U21 2+ goals
51%
Cambuur U21 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
58%
Cambuur U21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Cambuur U21 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Cambuur U21 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cambuur U21 attack 1.48 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
46%
level
21%
Cambuur U21 scores more
33%

ADO Den Haag II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag II vs Cambuur U21

ADO Den Haag II beat Cambuur U21 5-3 in U21 Divisie 1 on May 30, 2026.