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ADO '20 vs Westlandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
3 – 0
Westlandia
Westlandia
10/10/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 8Sportpark De Vlotter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ADO '2062%
×Draw20%
Westlandia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
2.24
Westlandia
1.14

ADO '20 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 32 away

creates per match

ADO '20
2.23
Westlandia
1.09

allows per match

ADO '20
1.19
Westlandia
2.25

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

Westlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
82%
ADO '20 or Westlandia
80%
Draw or Westlandia
38%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
39%
Westlandia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
89%
ADO '20 2+ goals
65%
ADO '20 3+ goals
38%
Westlandia 1+ goals
68%
Westlandia 2+ goals
32%
Westlandia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
77%
Westlandia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 2.23 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.24

Westlandia attack 1.09 + ADO '20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

ADO '20 scores more
62%
level
20%
Westlandia scores more
18%

ADO '20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "ADO '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO '20 vs Westlandia

ADO '20 beat Westlandia 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter in Heemskerk.