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ADO '20 vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
2/5/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 21Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

ADO '2054%
×Draw21%
OJC Rosmalen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
2.04
OJC Rosmalen
1.32

ADO '20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

creates per match

ADO '20
2.23
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

ADO '20
1.19
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
75%
ADO '20 or OJC Rosmalen
79%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
46%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
32%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
87%
ADO '20 2+ goals
60%
ADO '20 3+ goals
33%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
73%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
38%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
69%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 2.23 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.04

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + ADO '20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ADO '20 scores more
54%
level
21%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
25%

ADO '20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ADO '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: ADO '20 3–0 OJC Rosmalen

ADO '20 beat OJC Rosmalen 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.