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ADO '20 vs Kozakken Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
5/11/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 32Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2033%
×Draw24%
Kozakken Boys44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
1.41
Kozakken Boys
1.67

Kozakken Boys creates 18% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 87 away

creates per match

ADO '20
1.19
Kozakken Boys
1.17

allows per match

ADO '20
2.17
Kozakken Boys
1.62

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

Kozakken Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
56%
ADO '20 or Kozakken Boys
76%
Draw or Kozakken Boys
67%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
15%
Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
76%
ADO '20 2+ goals
41%
ADO '20 3+ goals
17%
Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
81%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
50%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
43%
Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ADO '20 scores more
33%
level
24%
Kozakken Boys scores more
44%

Kozakken Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: ADO '20 4–2 Kozakken Boys

ADO '20 beat Kozakken Boys 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.