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ADO '20 vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Katwijk
Katwijk
8/17/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2024%
×Draw22%
Katwijk54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
1.25
Katwijk
1.96

Katwijk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 100 away

creates per match

ADO '20
1.19
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

ADO '20
2.17
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
46%
ADO '20 or Katwijk
78%
Draw or Katwijk
76%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
10%
Katwijk wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
71%
ADO '20 2+ goals
36%
ADO '20 3+ goals
13%
Katwijk 1+ goals
86%
Katwijk 2+ goals
58%
Katwijk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
31%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Katwijk attack 1.75 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ADO '20 scores more
24%
level
22%
Katwijk scores more
54%

Katwijk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: ADO '20 0–1 Katwijk

Katwijk beat ADO '20 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.