ADO '20 1–2 GVVV Veenendaal: Result & Stats

ADO '20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

GVVV Veenendaal

4/19/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 30Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2033%

×Draw23%

GVVV Veenendaal44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO '20Expected goals in this matchGVVV Veenendaal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.77

ADO '20

1.52

GVVV Veenendaal

1.77

GVVV Veenendaal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 86 away

1.19

creates per match

1.36

2.17

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

ADO '20

1.19

GVVV Veenendaal

1.36

allows per match

ADO '20

2.17

GVVV Veenendaal

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw

56%

ADO '20 or GVVV Veenendaal

77%

Draw or GVVV Veenendaal

67%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+

16%

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals

78%

ADO '20 2+ goals

45%

ADO '20 3+ goals

20%

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

83%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

53%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)

43%

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ADO '20 scores more

33%

level

23%

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

44%

GVVV Veenendaal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff