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ADO '20 vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
DEM
DEM
2/20/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 15Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

ADO '2053%
×Draw23%
DEM25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
1.88
DEM
1.21

ADO '20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

ADO '20
2.23
DEM
1.23

allows per match

ADO '20
1.19
DEM
1.52

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
75%
ADO '20 or DEM
77%
Draw or DEM
47%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
30%
DEM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
85%
ADO '20 2+ goals
56%
ADO '20 3+ goals
29%
DEM 1+ goals
70%
DEM 2+ goals
34%
DEM 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
68%
DEM (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 2.23 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.88

DEM attack 1.23 + ADO '20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ADO '20 scores more
53%
level
23%
DEM scores more
25%

ADO '20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ADO '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: ADO '20 2–0 DEM

ADO '20 beat DEM 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.