ADO '20 0–2 De Treffers: Result & Stats

ADO '20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

De Treffers

1/28/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2028%

×Draw22%

De Treffers50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO '20Expected goals in this matchDe Treffers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.89

ADO '20

1.35

De Treffers

1.89

De Treffers creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 100 away

1.19

creates per match

1.60

2.17

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

ADO '20

1.19

De Treffers

1.60

allows per match

ADO '20

2.17

De Treffers

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par

De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

De Treffers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw

50%

ADO '20 or De Treffers

78%

Draw or De Treffers

72%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+

12%

De Treffers wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals

74%

ADO '20 2+ goals

39%

ADO '20 3+ goals

15%

De Treffers 1+ goals

85%

De Treffers 2+ goals

56%

De Treffers 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)

35%

De Treffers (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + De Treffers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

De Treffers attack 1.60 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ADO '20 scores more

28%

level

22%

De Treffers scores more

50%

De Treffers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff