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ADO '20 vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baronie
Baronie
10/2/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 9Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

ADO '2063%
×Draw19%
Baronie18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
2.40
Baronie
1.20

ADO '20 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

ADO '20
2.23
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

ADO '20
1.19
Baronie
2.56

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
82%
ADO '20 or Baronie
81%
Draw or Baronie
37%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
41%
Baronie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
91%
ADO '20 2+ goals
69%
ADO '20 3+ goals
42%
Baronie 1+ goals
70%
Baronie 2+ goals
34%
Baronie 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
78%
Baronie (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 2.23 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.40

Baronie attack 1.21 + ADO '20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ADO '20 scores more
63%
level
19%
Baronie scores more
18%

ADO '20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ADO '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ADO '20 2 – 1 Baronie

ADO '20 beat Baronie 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.