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ADO '20 vs Almere City II — Tweede Divisie 2019

ADO '20
ADO '20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Almere City II
Almere City II
4/21/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 30Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2028%
×Draw22%
Almere City II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO '20
1.44
Almere City II
2.02

Almere City II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

ADO '20
1.19
Almere City II
1.86

allows per match

ADO '20
2.17
Almere City II
1.69

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw
49%
ADO '20 or Almere City II
78%
Draw or Almere City II
72%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+
12%
Almere City II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals
76%
ADO '20 2+ goals
42%
ADO '20 3+ goals
18%
Almere City II 1+ goals
87%
Almere City II 2+ goals
60%
Almere City II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)
35%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Almere City II attack 1.86 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ADO '20 scores more
28%
level
22%
Almere City II scores more
51%

Almere City II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: ADO '20 1–1 Almere City II

ADO '20 and Almere City II drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1 in Heemskerk.