ADO '20 1–3 AFC Amsterdam: Result & Stats

ADO '20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

AFC Amsterdam

1/26/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ADO '2025%

×Draw22%

AFC Amsterdam52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO '20Expected goals in this matchAFC Amsterdam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.92

ADO '20

1.27

AFC Amsterdam

1.92

AFC Amsterdam creates 51% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 100 away

1.19

creates per match

1.68

2.17

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

ADO '20

1.19

AFC Amsterdam

1.68

allows per match

ADO '20

2.17

AFC Amsterdam

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO '20+0.00on par

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO '20 ↓

AFC Amsterdam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

ADO '20 or draw

48%

ADO '20 or AFC Amsterdam

78%

Draw or AFC Amsterdam

75%

Winning margin

ADO '20 wins by 2+

10%

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

ADO '20 1+ goals

72%

ADO '20 2+ goals

36%

ADO '20 3+ goals

14%

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

85%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

57%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

ADO '20 (draw refunded)

33%

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO '20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 36 matches

AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO '20 attack 1.19 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.68 + ADO '20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ADO '20 scores more

25%

level

22%

AFC Amsterdam scores more

52%

AFC Amsterdam at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff