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Adnet vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Adnet
Adnet
CANC
12:00
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
5/1/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 20Sportplatz SK Adnet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Adnet36%
×Draw23%
ÖTSU Hallein41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adnet
1.59
ÖTSU Hallein
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 23 away

creates per match

Adnet
1.75
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Adnet
1.66
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Adnet+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adnet ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Adnet or draw
59%
Adnet or ÖTSU Hallein
77%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
64%

Winning margin

Adnet wins by 2+
17%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Adnet 1+ goals
80%
Adnet 2+ goals
47%
Adnet 3+ goals
21%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
82%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
51%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Adnet (draw refunded)
46%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adnet at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adnet attack 1.75 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Adnet defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adnet scores more
36%
level
23%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
41%

ÖTSU Hallein at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adnet vs ÖTSU Hallein — Match Preview

Adnet face ÖTSU Hallein on May 1, 2021 in this Landesliga - Salzburg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Adnet host ÖTSU Hallein at Sportplatz SK Adnet.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.