Adnet 2–0 Hallwang: Result & Stats

Adnet

FT

2 – 0

Hallwang

9/23/2022

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 8Sportplatz SK Adnet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adnet55%

×Draw21%

Hallwang25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdnetExpected goals in this matchHallwang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.42

Adnet

2.19

Hallwang

1.42

Adnet creates 54% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 67 away

1.75

creates per match

1.18

1.66

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Adnet

1.75

Hallwang

1.18

allows per match

Adnet

1.66

Hallwang

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adnet+0.00on par

Hallwang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adnet ↓

Hallwang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Adnet or draw

75%

Adnet or Hallwang

79%

Draw or Hallwang

45%

Winning margin

Adnet wins by 2+

33%

Hallwang wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Adnet 1+ goals

89%

Adnet 2+ goals

64%

Adnet 3+ goals

37%

Hallwang 1+ goals

76%

Hallwang 2+ goals

41%

Hallwang 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Adnet (draw refunded)

69%

Hallwang (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adnet at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

Hallwang away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adnet attack 1.75 + Hallwang defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hallwang attack 1.18 + Adnet defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Adnet scores more

55%

level

21%

Hallwang scores more

25%

Adnet at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Adnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff