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Adnet vs Golling — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Adnet
Adnet
CANC
14:00
Golling
Golling
3/27/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 15Sportplatz SK Adnet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adnet48%
×Draw21%
Golling30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adnet
2.04
Golling
1.58

Adnet creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 56 away

creates per match

Adnet
1.75
Golling
1.50

allows per match

Adnet
1.66
Golling
2.32

finishing

Adnet+0.00on par
Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adnet ↓

Golling →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Adnet or draw
70%
Adnet or Golling
79%
Draw or Golling
52%

Winning margin

Adnet wins by 2+
28%
Golling wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Adnet 1+ goals
87%
Adnet 2+ goals
60%
Adnet 3+ goals
33%
Golling 1+ goals
79%
Golling 2+ goals
47%
Golling 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Adnet (draw refunded)
62%
Golling (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adnet at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adnet attack 1.75 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Golling attack 1.50 + Adnet defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adnet scores more
48%
level
21%
Golling scores more
30%

Adnet at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Adnet host Golling

March 27, 2021: Adnet take on Golling in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Adnet host Golling at Sportplatz SK Adnet.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.