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Adnet vs Bergheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Adnet
Adnet
FT
3 – 1
Bergheim
Bergheim
8/26/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 4Sportplatz SK Adnet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Adnet52%
×Draw20%
Bergheim28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adnet
2.25
Bergheim
1.61

Adnet creates 40% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 37 away

creates per match

Adnet
1.75
Bergheim
1.57

allows per match

Adnet
1.66
Bergheim
2.76

finishing

Adnet+0.00on par
Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adnet ↓

Bergheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Adnet or draw
72%
Adnet or Bergheim
80%
Draw or Bergheim
48%

Winning margin

Adnet wins by 2+
31%
Bergheim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Adnet 1+ goals
89%
Adnet 2+ goals
65%
Adnet 3+ goals
39%
Bergheim 1+ goals
80%
Bergheim 2+ goals
48%
Bergheim 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Adnet (draw refunded)
65%
Bergheim (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adnet at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adnet attack 1.75 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Adnet defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adnet scores more
52%
level
20%
Bergheim scores more
28%

Adnet at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adnet vs Bergheim

Adnet beat Bergheim 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SK Adnet in Adnet.