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Adnet vs Altenmarkt — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Adnet
Adnet
FT
1 – 0
Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
4/2/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 16Sportplatz SK Adnet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Adnet56%
×Draw20%
Altenmarkt24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adnet
2.36
Altenmarkt
1.52

Adnet creates 55% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 37 away

creates per match

Adnet
1.75
Altenmarkt
1.38

allows per match

Adnet
1.66
Altenmarkt
2.97

finishing

Adnet+0.00on par
Altenmarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adnet ↓

Altenmarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Adnet or draw
76%
Adnet or Altenmarkt
80%
Draw or Altenmarkt
44%

Winning margin

Adnet wins by 2+
35%
Altenmarkt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Adnet 1+ goals
90%
Adnet 2+ goals
68%
Adnet 3+ goals
41%
Altenmarkt 1+ goals
78%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
45%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Adnet (draw refunded)
70%
Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adnet at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

Altenmarkt away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adnet attack 1.75 + Altenmarkt defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.36

Altenmarkt attack 1.38 + Adnet defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Adnet scores more
56%
level
20%
Altenmarkt scores more
24%

Adnet at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Adnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Adnet 1–0 Altenmarkt

Adnet beat Altenmarkt 1-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SK Adnet in Adnet.