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Admira Wacker vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
8/26/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 5BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Admira Wacker40%
×Draw25%
SV Mattersburg35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Wacker
1.48
SV Mattersburg
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 31 away

creates per match

Admira Wacker
1.05
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

Admira Wacker
1.59
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw
65%
Admira Wacker or SV Mattersburg
75%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
60%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+
19%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals
77%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
43%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
19%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
74%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
39%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
54%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.05 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Admira Wacker defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Admira Wacker scores more
40%
level
25%
SV Mattersburg scores more
35%

Admira Wacker at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Admira Wacker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Admira Wacker 0–0 SV Mattersburg

Admira Wacker and SV Mattersburg drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at BSFZ-Arena in Maria Enzersdorf.