Admira Wacker 1–2 Austria Vienna: Result & Stats

Admira Wacker

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Austria Vienna

W. Vorsager 7'

R. Vucic 83'

A. Grünwald 64'

3/6/2022

Bundesliga · Round 22BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Admira Wacker31%

×Draw26%

Austria Vienna43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Admira WackerExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.47

Admira Wacker

1.20

Austria Vienna

1.47

Austria Vienna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 130 away

1.05

creates per match

1.34

1.59

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Admira Wacker

1.05

Austria Vienna

1.34

allows per match

Admira Wacker

1.59

Austria Vienna

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

Austria Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw

57%

Admira Wacker or Austria Vienna

74%

Draw or Austria Vienna

69%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+

13%

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals

70%

Admira Wacker 2+ goals

34%

Admira Wacker 3+ goals

12%

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

77%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

43%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)

42%

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.05 + Austria Vienna defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Austria Vienna attack 1.34 + Admira Wacker defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Admira Wacker scores more

31%

level

26%

Austria Vienna scores more

43%

Austria Vienna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Bauer

Admira Wacker · D

7.5

Match Events

7'

W. Vorsager↳ J. Vodháněl

34'

Lucas Galvão

55'

Lukas Mühl

60'

M. Huskovic← V. Demaku

61'

I. Elmkies← T. Ebner

61'

M. Djuricin← N. Ohio

64'

A. Grünwald

69'

J. Ganda← S. Surdanovic

74'

R. Vucic← A. Grünwald

78'

V. Nikolov← M. Mustapha

78'

M. Ostrzolek← S. Bauer

79'

Jan Vodhanel

83'

R. Vucic↳ M. Huskovic

87'

Markus Suttner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdmiraAustria

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots11

2Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target3

3Off Target3

1Blocked5

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

389Total Passes372

278Accurate Passes253

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2