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Admira Villach vs Wolfsberg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Admira Villach
Admira Villach
FT
2 – 2
Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
4/17/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Admira Villach34%
×Draw21%
Wolfsberg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Villach
1.80
Wolfsberg
2.09

Wolfsberg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Admira Villach
1.35
Wolfsberg
1.77

allows per match

Admira Villach
2.41
Wolfsberg
2.24

finishing

Admira Villach+0.00on par
Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Villach ↓

Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Admira Villach or draw
55%
Admira Villach or Wolfsberg
79%
Draw or Wolfsberg
66%

Winning margin

Admira Villach wins by 2+
17%
Wolfsberg wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Admira Villach 1+ goals
83%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
54%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
27%
Wolfsberg 1+ goals
88%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
62%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Admira Villach (draw refunded)
43%
Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Villach at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Villach attack 1.35 + Wolfsberg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.80

Wolfsberg attack 1.77 + Admira Villach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Admira Villach scores more
34%
level
21%
Wolfsberg scores more
45%

Wolfsberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolfsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Admira Villach 2–2 Wolfsberg

Admira Villach and Wolfsberg drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach in Villach.