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Admira Villach vs St. Andrä — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Admira Villach
Admira Villach
FT
0 – 4
St. Andrä
St. Andrä
5/8/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 26Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Admira Villach38%
×Draw22%
St. Andrä40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Villach
1.81
St. Andrä
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Admira Villach
1.35
St. Andrä
1.33

allows per match

Admira Villach
2.41
St. Andrä
2.27

finishing

Admira Villach+0.00on par
St. Andrä+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Villach ↓

St. Andrä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Admira Villach or draw
60%
Admira Villach or St. Andrä
78%
Draw or St. Andrä
62%

Winning margin

Admira Villach wins by 2+
20%
St. Andrä wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Admira Villach 1+ goals
84%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
54%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
27%
St. Andrä 1+ goals
85%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
56%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Admira Villach (draw refunded)
48%
St. Andrä (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Villach at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

St. Andrä away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Villach attack 1.35 + St. Andrä defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

St. Andrä attack 1.33 + Admira Villach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Admira Villach scores more
38%
level
22%
St. Andrä scores more
40%

St. Andrä at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St. Andrä will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Admira Villach 0 – 4 St. Andrä

St. Andrä beat Admira Villach 4-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach in Villach.