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Admira Villach vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Admira Villach
Admira Villach
FT
2 – 0
Gmünd
Gmünd
8/28/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 7Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Admira Villach34%
×Draw23%
Gmünd43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Villach
1.57
Gmünd
1.77

Gmünd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Admira Villach
1.35
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

Admira Villach
2.41
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

Admira Villach+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Villach ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Admira Villach or draw
57%
Admira Villach or Gmünd
77%
Draw or Gmünd
66%

Winning margin

Admira Villach wins by 2+
17%
Gmünd wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Admira Villach 1+ goals
79%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
46%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
21%
Gmünd 1+ goals
83%
Gmünd 2+ goals
53%
Gmünd 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Admira Villach (draw refunded)
45%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Villach at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Villach attack 1.35 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Admira Villach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Admira Villach scores more
34%
level
23%
Gmünd scores more
43%

Gmünd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Admira Villach 2–0 Gmünd

Admira Villach beat Gmünd 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach in Villach.